897
FXUS65 KFGZ 090250
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
750 PM MST Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A slight chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, then dry and breezy the remainder of
next week. Temperatures right around seasonal normals.

&&

.UPDATE...High-based convective activity is on the downswing this
evening, skies will slowly clear overnight. More of the same for
Monday and Tuesday, no short term updates needed.

.PREV DISCUSSION /1219 PM MST/...Through Tuesday, generally light
winds with a few afternoon breezes and warm daytime temperatures are
forecast. The main item of interest in the current weak flow pattern
is that limited moisture across northern Arizona will combine with
daytime heating to produce a layer of mid-level instability. The
result will be a chance of sprinkles or perhaps light showers and a
few stray thunderstorms, mainly over and near the mountains. We were
already seeing such buildups Sunday afternoon with virga and a few
sprinkles around the area. Better chances arrive on Monday with a
weak trough which will cool the mid-levels a bit, providing for a
slight boost in instability. Monday will have the highest chances
for measurable precipitation and thunderstorms. Even then, any
rainfall will amount to only a few hundredths of an inch and
thunderstorms will be isolated. The pattern begins to shift to a
more southwesterly flow on Tuesday with slight chances for showers
and storms shifting to primarily eastern Arizona.

From Wednesday onward...Models are in good agreement in developing
a drier southwest flow across the southwest United States. Look
for mainly clear skies with just a few afternoon cloud buildups
over the mountains, warming daytime temperatures and gusty
southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. The result of
this pattern will be heightened fire weather concerns. Otherwise,
typical weather conditions heading into mid June.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 09/00Z through Tuesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
persist with isolated -SHRA through 03Z. Sky cover becomes clear
thereafter. Expect increasing cloud cover and scattered -TSRA/-SHRA
developing by 19Z along the high terrain. Variable winds of
around 10 kts become calm after 03Z. Westerly winds increase by
18Z, 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 10/00Z through Thursday 12/00Z...VFR conditions
continue with variable cloud cover. Plan on west-northwest winds,
15-20 kts, on Tuesday, increasing on Wednesday, 15-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Daytime temperatures a few
degrees above normal each day and minimum relative humidities from
10 to 20 percent. A weak trough and limited mid-level moisture over
the area will bring a slight chance of high-based showers, even a
stray thunderstorm, each afternoon. Best chances along and north of
the Mogollon Rim Monday, eastern zones Tuesday. Daytime winds west
through southwest 5 to 15 mph, with thermally driven gusts to 20 mph
over higher terrain.

Wednesday through Friday...A slight chance of high-based showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern zones Wednesday afternoon, otherwise
dry with seasonable temperatures. Minimum relative humidity values
10 to 20 percent Wednesday, below 15 percent Thursday and Friday.
Daily southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, with gusts from 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson/McCollum
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff